The "butterfly effect" triggered by the shortage of goods is continuing to ferment in the semiconductor industry. With favorable national policies and capital support, the investment enthusiasm of the entire industry chain continues to rise. At the 14th "The Bund Finance ? Shanghai International Equity Investment Forum" (2020 SIPEF) held a few days ago, Mr. Ju Long, President of SEMI (International Semiconductor Industry Association) China, shared the "New Situation and New Development of the Semiconductor Industry" on the spot. Opportunities, global cooperation and innovation drive industrial development" thinking.
Changes in the Gengzi Year-New Situation of the Global Integrated Circuit Industry
2020 Gengzi Year is destined to be an extraordinary year. We have encountered unprecedented changes and ushered in unprecedented opportunities. From the perspective of the global semiconductor industry, in 2020, due to the epidemic and other factors, the sales of electronic products will drop by 3%, but the global integrated circuit sales are expected to have a positive growth of more than 7%, reaching 440 billion US dollars. 2021 is expected to continue positive growth. The growth rate of the development of China's semiconductor industry leads the world and is higher than that of the world. The global semiconductor equipment market is expected to grow by about 10-13% in 2020, and it is expected to reach a new high in 2021. In 2020, the global semiconductor materials market will grow steadily and slightly by 2.2%, reaching 53.9 billion U.S. dollars. In 2021, it will reach 56.5 billion U.S. dollars. China will become the world's second largest semiconductor material market in 2020 and will maintain this market position in 2021. Compared with equipment companies with higher technical thresholds, materials have many subdivisions, which is a better opportunity for Chinese companies to participate, because the materials market in China will continue to grow steadily.
According to industry analysis, the semiconductor terminal application market is dominated by the computer and communication markets, which together account for approximately 70% of the semiconductor terminal market. The impact of the new crown epidemic has caused different performance in various segments of semiconductors in 2020. Driven by home office and distance learning, the demand for cloud services, cloud data, servers and personal computers has grown substantially, which has driven the demand for semiconductors.
Judging from the top 25 global semiconductor sales rankings, IDM is more than Fabless, but Fabless rankings are rising, and more are entering the rankings. The amazing growth rate of TSMC in Foundry far exceeds the forecast at the beginning of the year. Apple ranks fifth in Fabless. HiSilicon is the only company on the list in China, ranking seventh. From the rankings of Apple and HiSilicon, we can see the important trend of OEMs entering the semiconductor industry's homemade chips.
In addition to the market demand side, the semiconductor industry's supply side forecasts have also improved from the beginning of the year. As far as semiconductor manufacturing equipment is concerned, the negative growth predicted from the beginning of the year has also been revised up to a positive growth of 11%. There are four main reasons for the positive growth of semiconductor equipment: the first is the investment in advanced logic processes; the second is the investment in Foundry; the third is the memory; the fourth is the growth of the Chinese market than expected. According to the SEMI report data, the global semiconductor equipment market grew by 21% in the first October 2020, of which mainland China grew by 43%.
The semiconductor industry is a fast-growing industry, which has a huge impact on the progress of human civilization, national technology and even the manifestation of national power. Looking ahead, the semiconductor industry will maintain positive growth in the years after 2021, and the main new growth momentum will come from smart applications, including smart data, smart transportation, smart manufacturing, smart medical, and IoT. Chips make smart applications possible, just as Ju Long made a metaphor in his speech at the World Internet Conference in Wuzhen this year: The Internet without chips will be "not connected to each other"; 5G without chips will be " Lifelessness". The importance of the chip is self-evident.
Challenges and Opportunities of China's Semiconductor Industry
Regarding the sales of the domestic integrated circuit design industry, according to the data released on ICCAD, the industry-wide sales in 2020 are expected to be 381.94 billion yuan, an increase of 23.8% from 308.49 billion yuan in 2019, and the growth rate is higher than the 19.7% of the previous year. 4.1 percentage points.
The seven major areas of China's new infrastructure include: 5G infrastructure, UHV, inter-city high-speed railway and inter-city rail transit, new energy vehicle charging piles, big data centers, artificial intelligence and industrial Internet. Semiconductor integrated circuits are the core technology of the new infrastructure. . In the next few years, investment in new infrastructure will further drive the demand for integrated circuits in China.
In addition to wafer manufacturing, packaging and testing equipment is also growing positively, or even faster. These include 5G and some new smart application requirements. In addition to the three major manufacturers of Changjiang Electronics, Tongfu, and Huatian, domestic packaging and testing companies are also growing rapidly, and there are currently more than 100 companies. Affected by important factors in the growth of the Chinese market, the current Chinese market has become the world's largest equipment market in 2020.
With the development of China's semiconductor industry, China's semiconductor materials market has been growing steadily. In 2019, China's semiconductor materials market grew by 3% to US$870 million. It is expected that there will be a 7% growth in 2020 and a substantial growth of 12% in 2021, and the market size will hit a record high. Japan occupies a dominant position in the field of semiconductor materials, and China currently accounts for about 13% to 15% of global production capacity. Similarly, we have a significant gap between supply and demand. The gap is an opportunity. There are challenges and opportunities, and when there are crises, there are opportunities.
The top 10 revenue rankings of global semiconductor equipment manufacturers are basically in the United States, Europe, and Japan. This situation will not change in the short term. We have made progress in various fields, but our overall market share is still relatively low, especially in high-end equipment, and the gap between domestic manufacturers in advanced processes is even greater, but this is also an investment opportunity.
Mr. Ju Long made a summary here: "In the areas of design, manufacturing, packaging, testing, equipment and materials just mentioned, in the field of packaging and testing, we have a small gap with the international leading technology, but there are still some other fields. A certain gap. From a manufacturing perspective, as far as Foundry's chip foundry technology nodes are concerned, there is a gap between domestic fabs and international leading fabs, so it is necessary to achieve innovation through international cooperation. It is also special here. Remind everyone to pay attention to a small but critical area-EDA (Electronic Design Automation).